Free Iraqi

I was not living before the 9th of April and now I am, so let me speak!

Friday, March 10, 2006

Signs of hope.

Before Ja'fari's last visit to Turkey everything was going in the wrong direction and the only hope I could see was that a civil war may resolve most of those unsettled issues and repressed anger and distrust that has been building among different Iraqi sects. The politicians were not doing what they should do and the people were just following those their leaders who were already lost, so the only hope was in that the people would wake up on their own, but that needs a huge shock, as obviously Saddam, the war, and what followed were not enough to change the hearts and minds enough to push forward to a real change.However, someone very stupid (or very smart?) seem to have advised Ja'fari that it's a good plan to visit Turkey these days, and then not inform the Kurds and take along with him some Turkmen figures who have no real official position in the government. That was enough for the Kurds to practically change sides and stand with the Sunni bloc and Allawi to demand that the UIA replace his nominee for the prime minister position.None of those blocs can be really considered a liberal democratic one, but collectively they, for the 1st time seem to be working well and that include the UIA. Adil Abdil Mehdi is not much better than Ja'fari but he's still a better choice for the moment. I tend to see the Sadirists as a much bigger threat to Iraq's unity than the SCIRI and despite (or probably because) their alliance with radical Sunnis, they are more likely to further widen the split between Sunnis and She'at. Ask any Sunni who they distrust more and they will answer Al-Mehdi army. Ask any She'at who they distrust more among Sunnis and they'd say the Association of Sunni scholars, Sadr allies.Another reason why replacing Ja'fari is a good thing is that it most likely going to deepen the already existing disagreement between Sadr and Al-Hakeem, the strongest men in the UIA. Sistani has always managed to keep them together like when the cause of conflict was opening an office for Sadr in Najaf, but now the dispute is about something much bigger than that.If the UIA is not worse than the rest then why is it good that it get weakened? Simply to create a balance where none of the involved political powers can have things totally their way. To me of course the UIA is worse than Allawi and even the Sunni bloc but a She'at may not see it the same of course. However, what am I going to lose if no one dominates the parliament and what would a Kurd or a She'at lose if their groups don't dominate? Nothing, except absolute power and the chance to dominate and oppress other sects which I believe is not what most Iraqis want.Now the UIA may not submit to the demands of the other sects and that would bring us back to civil war if the Kurds maintained their current stand.I have been thinking since the 1st elections that Iraq's main hope lay in the way the Kurdish Alliance act and how much would they be involved in Iraq's politics as a whole country and not just when it comes to Kurdistan. The Kurds have fewer reasons to disagree with Sunnis or She'at than those two have to disagree with each. They're mostly Sunnis and that makes Sunnis less sensitive towards them and they were subject to oppression and discrimination just like the She'at which makes it easier that they communicate and understand each other.If the UIA agrees on changing their nominee this may give rise to a more balanced government that most Iraqis would support and this would mean that dealing with Sunni insurgency would be easier and then dealing with She'at militias would be more possible too. How is a government led by a member of the SCIRI going to agree to disband the militia? Seems impossible but it doesn't have to be that radical and doesn't have to include all militias. The SCIRI would be more than happy to see the Mehdi army disarmed and Sistani may not object that much too if it can be done in a smart way. The new Iraqi government may try to enforce it on all including the Peshmarga but then all the Peshmarga and the Badr brigade may need to do is keep a low profile.The Mehdi army most likely won't be able to do that, as while the Peshmerga functions only in Kurdistan and have no reason to be that active or aggressive and the Badr brigade has to always keep a low profile because it can't survive if its actions were shown to the public. The Mehdi army survives only with chaos and tension and they often create those by themselves. They would also be found unjustified in creating any sectarian tension if the Sunni insurgency gets dealt with by the government which would be Sunni in part and wouldn't find it as difficult as it is now to gain the support of locals in Sunni areas. After the Mehdi army get dealt with, the rest shouldn't be that difficult.Probably just a wishful thinking on my side but I don't think anyone can say that it's impossible.