Sistani's blessings.

At last Sistani decided to give his "blessings" publicly to the United Iraqi Alliance list that contains the most of the religious She'at parties together with the INC and some small minority parties. Sistani cleared this issue on answering questions submitted by the Arabic newspaper Al Ra'ai Al Am (Link in Arabic). He mentioned that although he blesses the Alliance list, he still support all the patriotic lists.This statement ended a debate here that took weeks between the supporters of the aforementioned list and other parties and Iraqi people in general. Most secular She'at that I know denied constantly that Sistani is supporting a certain list and not only that, they confirmed their total trust in Sistani's neutral stand in this election and that he would never take such a stand that takes him down from being a spiritual father of all She'at and all Iraq as they wish to just a God father of one group that no matter how large does not represent all She'at and certainly not even the majority of Iraq.When I used to tell my She'at friends that Sistani is actually doing that but he can't say it in public, most of them were annoyed and thought I was just being Sunni. However Sistani has finally made this daring and questionable move that even skeptics like me didn't think he would do. Sistani presented with his statement some unconvincing excuses for his attitude saying that he supports this list only because he knows more about it! I believe that the "Marjiyia" committed a bad mistake here that would create further conflict (on the short term) among She'at but one that will also harm the "Marjiyia's" influence itself and benefit Iraq on the long term.Sistani has constantly tried since the end of the war to present himself as a spiritual leader of not only the She'at but also all Iraqis. He has made some good steps in approaching Sunni religious leaders, Christians and other minorities, and frankly the man is respected by the majority of Iraqis for his moderate stand and his efforts and contributions to peace in Iraq. As for She'at Sistani and the Marjiyia in general were always a symbol and a place to which they all return for strength and advice in religious as well as other life issues. Secular She'at were not very different from this and this is not very strange, as She'at have been oppressed for such a long time and they were deprived of many privileges, certain jobs and higher positions generally just because they were She'at and it didn't matter much to their oppressors whether they were secular or practicing She'at. This made She'at stick together and follow to variable degrees their religious leadership. They see themselves as one entity more than Sunnis because of all the disasters and hardships that they went through together and this seem to be the strongest tie that brings people together everywhere. Being a She'at thus is a matter of identity rather than a religious belief.Today there seems to be a difference though. Secular She'at feel more safe than ever and seem to be able to chose their own path with or without the guidance of the marjiyia. This happened only in the 50s at the golden times for Iraqi communists and now it's happening again as She'at see themselves as the majority in a situation were majority counts for the first time in Iraq. They are not that afraid of Sunni or Kurdish groups but they still have some worries which caused them to keep very friendly ties with the religious part of the She'at community.Such secular parties as Allawi's list hoped that Sistani would maintain his neutral attitude that would bring She'at closer to each other regardless of their ideological belief. And while Sistani's main goal seems, as he said more than once, to avoid the wasting of She'at votes if these votes go in different directions, he has only managed to do the opposite in such statement. He has weakened his position by drawing a line that is going to drive secular She'at away from him and thus weakens his institution's power and influence. The United alliance will most likely get more votes as a result of this blessing but the Marjiyia will somewhat isolate itself to a certain degree from other She'at powers and this will certainly weaken all She'at religious parties that get a lot of their influence from the strength of the Marjiyia.As the election gets near and according to most polls and what I hear from people here it seems that she'at votes are going to be divided mainly among 3 major parties; the United Iraqi alliance that seems ahead of the rest to some degree, the Iraqi list (Allawi) and the communist party (The People's Union list) that follow with the communists seemingly more favorable than Allawi. I put the Communist party in this category because most of its members and supporters are She'at and Kurds and since it's a large party and the oldest in the arena it's expected to attract many She'at voters.The issue of Share'a law imposed remains totally impossible as it would not be agreed on by the secular She'at parties not to mention the non-She'at powers. What remains to say is that the fact the major She'at religious parties found it necessary for them to group together and to seek the blessings of Sistani despite their individual greed show only their awareness of their own weakness and the general dislike Iraqis have towards clerics interference in politics. This made them go back and ask for the support of Sistani which as I said is thought by them to give them more support based on identity bound rather than a religious one. The loss of the marjiyia would be more obvious when we put in mind the serious accusations that Allawi's list has been exchanging with the United alliance list, as now Sistani has put himself in confrontation with other She'at parties that are competing in the elections. He has become a foe more than a God father to the She'at outside the "blessed" list. In my mind this is a good thing for the She'at to look for their own path away from any custody or guidance and it's therefore good for Iraq.